===== 假设检验 (Hypothesis testing) ===== * 定义:用样本数据来评价有关总体的某一假设的可置信性的推论程序。以样本为依据,对总体作出判断 * Definition: A process of inference using sample data to evaluate the confidence of a hypothesis about a population. Based on the sample, the judgment is made on the population * 可置信性:在多大程度上可以相信这个假设是正确的 * Confidence: The extent to which the hypothesis can be believed to be correct * 程度的判断基于样本均值的概率分布 * The degree is judged based on the probability distribution of the sample mean * 研究设计的两种结果: * Two results of research design: - 研究假设:样本均值与总体均值间有显著差异 - Research hypothesis(H1): There is a significant difference between the sample mean and the population mean - 虚无假设:样本均值与总体均值间无显著差异 - Null hypothesis(H0): There has no significant difference between the sample mean and the population mean * 显著性水平(α):在检验过程中,我们假设虚无假设是真实的,同时计算出观测到的差异完全是由随机误差所致的概率,称为观测概率p。若p≤α,则拒绝虚无假设;如果p>α,则不能拒绝虚无假设 * Significance level (α): During the test, we assume that the null hypothesis is true, and the difference we observed is entirely due to random error, which is called the observed probability p. If p ≤α, the null hypothesis is rejected, and if p is >α, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. ---- ===== 假设检验的基本逻辑(The basic logics of hypothesis testing) ===== 1.陈述假设:虚无假设与研究假设 Describe the hypothesis: The null hypothesis(H0) and the research hypothesis(H1) 2.设定决策标准:找出z分数界定的临界区域 Set the decision standard: Find out the critical value by z-score 3.收集数据,计算样本统计量 Collect the data and calculate the sample statistics 4.做出决策:如果得出的z分数落在拒绝区域中,就拒绝H0 Decide: If the z-score falls in the reject area, reject H0.